Daily Market Briefing
US markets closed at fresh highs on Monday as a potential deal between Washington and Tehran sent oil tumbling and risk appetite soaring. The Dow notched new intraday and closing records, while across the Pacific, Japan's Nikkei 225 hit an all-time high overnight. But the euphoria masks deeper cracks — China's retail sales posted their first drop in over three years, and the Bank of Japan just hiked rates to 1%, the highest since 1995. London traders face a critical question this morning: can the FTSE hold yesterday's gains with oil down 5% and global growth signals flashing amber?
Market Recap
Monday's session was all about the US-Iran deal. The Dow Jones climbed 1.62% to close at 51,671.03, notching both intraday and closing records as the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz waterway sent energy costs lower. The S&P 500 added 2.16% to 7,554.29, while the NASDAQ 100 surged 3.73% to 30,543.92 — its strongest performance in weeks as tech stocks rallied on falling input costs. The FTSE 100 rose 1.23% to 10,430.62, benefiting from the risk-on mood despite pressure on energy names. Oil's collapse — WTI down 5.24% to $80.43 and Brent down 5.24% to $82.75 — was the session's defining move.
Key Movers & Themes
SpaceX Mania: The space exploration company's stock jumped 20% in its first full day of trading, valuing the firm at over $2 trillion. The IPO raised $87.5 billion, $10 billion more than initially estimated, marking one of the largest public offerings in history. Options traders are now bracing for the launch of SpaceX contracts this week, adding another layer of volatility to an already busy June triple witching period.
Japan's Hawkish Turn: The Bank of Japan hiked rates to 1% overnight, the highest level since 1995, as yen weakness and inflation concerns forced policymakers' hands. This marks the first hike since December when rates rose to 0.75%. The move sent ripples through Asian markets, with the Nikkei 225 hitting a record high despite the tightening cycle — a sign that investors are betting on sustainable growth rather than fearing the rate impact.
China's Slowdown Deepens: Retail sales in the world's second-largest economy fell for the first time in over three years in May, while urban investment contracted more than expected. The data adds to mounting evidence that China's post-pandemic recovery is stalling, raising questions about global demand for commodities and manufactured goods. The ripple effects could hit European exporters and mining stocks in the coming sessions.
Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today
- 09:00 GMT — Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun): Forecast -6 vs previous -10.2. A better-than-expected reading could lift European equities and the euro.
- 09:00 GMT — Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun): Forecast -7.2 vs previous -9.1. Watch for any divergence between German and broader eurozone sentiment.
- 12:30 GMT — US Housing Starts (May): Forecast 1.43M vs previous 1.465M. A miss here would add to concerns about US growth momentum.
- 12:30 GMT — US Building Permits (May): Forecast 1.42M vs previous 1.423M. Leading indicator for construction activity — critical for materials and homebuilder stocks.
- 20:30 GMT — API Crude Oil Stock Change: Forecast -4.5M vs previous -9.119M. With oil already down 5%, a larger-than-expected draw could trigger a bounce.
The housing data at 12:30 GMT is the headline event — any weakness will fuel recession fears and could reverse Monday's risk-on rally.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Stock | Close | Pivot | Support (S1 / S2) | Resistance (R1 / R2) | Cam S3 / R3 | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | 168.10 | 163.00 | 157.00 / 145.90 | 174.10 / 180.20 | 163.40 / 172.80 | 56.9 | Neutral |
| MU | 1,088.10 | 1,062.20 | 1,026.90 / 965.70 | 1,123.40 / 1,158.70 | 1,061.60 / 1,114.60 | 66.6 | Bullish |
| MRVL | 308.90 | 303.30 | 293.60 / 278.40 | 318.50 / 328.20 | 302.00 / 315.70 | 67.7 | Bullish |
| LRCX | 388.90 | 388.10 | 383.20 / 377.40 | 393.90 / 398.80 | 386.00 / 391.90 | 72.7 | Overbought |
| BKNG | 174.60 | 173.50 | 170.20 / 165.70 | 177.90 / 181.30 | 172.50 / 176.80 | 61.0 | Bullish |
| ABNB | 139.00 | 137.80 | 135.40 / 131.90 | 141.30 / 143.70 | 137.30 / 140.60 | 58.7 | Neutral |
| AAPL | 296.42 | 295.30 | 292.82 / 289.22 | 298.90 / 301.38 | 294.75 / 298.09 | 49.5 | Neutral |
| MSFT | 399.76 | 398.12 | 394.49 / 389.22 | 403.39 / 407.02 | 397.31 / 402.21 | 42.7 | Bearish |
| JPM | 319.40 | 321.39 | 316.85 / 314.31 | 323.93 / 328.47 | 317.45 / 321.35 | 63.2 | Bullish |
| GS | 1,076.17 | 1,081.78 | 1,069.39 / 1,062.60 | 1,088.57 / 1,100.96 | 1,070.90 / 1,081.44 | 63.1 | Bullish |
Commodities & Currencies
| Instrument | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil | $80.43 | -$4.45 | -5.24% |
| Brent Oil | $82.75 | -$4.58 | -5.24% |
| Gold | $4,339.80 | +$11.80 | +0.27% |
| Silver | $69.38 | +$1.52 | +2.24% |
| Natural Gas | $3.130 | +$0.040 | +1.43% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3393 | +0.0021 | +0.16% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1579 | +0.0044 | +0.38% |
| USD/JPY | 160.29 | -0.09 | -0.06% |
| Bitcoin | $66,020.15 | +$309.75 | +0.47% |
Oil's 5.24% collapse dominated the commodity space as the US-Iran deal promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease supply fears. Silver outperformed gold with a 2.24% gain, suggesting industrial demand optimism is offsetting safe-haven flows. The dollar weakened slightly against the euro and pound as risk appetite returned, while USD/JPY barely moved despite the BOJ's rate hike — a sign that the move was fully priced in. Bitcoin edged higher, tracking equity strength.
Trading Outlook
The bias is cautiously bullish into the London open, but fragile. The FTSE's 10,430 close puts it within striking distance of the 10,570 five-day high, but energy stocks will face headwinds from oil's collapse. Watch the 10,400 level — it's now doing the heavy lifting as support. The catalyst that flips this? Weaker-than-expected US housing data at 12:30 GMT could trigger a swift reversal, especially if it confirms the growth slowdown narrative emerging from China. Stay nimble, keep stops tight, and don't chase the open — let the first hour settle before committing capital.
This briefing is generated using AI analysis of market data and news feeds, reviewed by the ChartsView team. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.